The relaxation of further Covid restrictions on July 19 is by far the biggest piece of news for this month. Normally I try to avoid focussing on a single topic in these newsletters, but this is so important. So, why is it that the Government has decided to move to Step 4 of its roadmap for Covid recovery?
The Government set itself four tests to pass before relaxation of the rules should take place.
The First Test was a successful vaccination programme. This test has clearly been met. Over 80 million doses of vaccine have now been given and by 19th July, every adult in the UK will have been offered a first dose. But the important datum is that 9 out of 10 adults in the UK now have Covid-19 antibodies.
The Second Test was what impact the vaccination programme is having on hospitalisations and deaths. Public Health England estimates that two doses of vaccine provides 96% protection against hospitalisation for all the current variants of the virus. So, whilst the link between catching Covid-19 and having to go to hospital has not been totally broken, it has been massively reduced.
The Third Test was whether the likely infection rates would still put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. To answer this test requires use of scientific modelling, a tool that has been immeasurably improved over the last 18 months as scientists have learned more and more about the virus. The models suggest that, whilst daily cases may increase to as many as 100,000, the effect of the vaccines mean that this will not result in an overwhelmed NHS.
To my mind, this is the hardest of the tests, since increased case numbers will lead to increased deaths, as well as more people suffering from the effects of long Covid. But we need to remember that continued restrictions are also having serious negative health impacts, even if you ignore the continuing economic and social damage. Domestic violence cases have risen dramatically. Mental health issues, particularly amongst the young, have risen sharply, and illnesses like cancer are going undiagnosed.
Covid-19 is never going to be totally eradicated. So, given that we can’t keep on maintaining these damaging restrictions for ever, the best advice is that we take advantage of the summer weather to relax conditions now rather than wait until the Autumn, when additional cases would then combine with winter illnesses to make matters worse.
The Fourth Test is that the risks above are not fundamentally changed by a new variant of concern. We need to remain on our guard against a new variant emerging that is either even more transmissible than the Delta, or able to evade the vaccines. To protect against this the increased vigilance at our international borders will be maintained, as well as even further resources being poured into genomic sequencing capability, so that new strands can be identified as soon as they emerge and dealt with.
Roadmap Step 4: Remaining businesses, including nightclubs to reopen. No legal limit on social contact. No legal limit on life and larger events. Domestic overnight stays and international travel permitted. All subject to review.
None of the above is without risk, but the same is true for continuing with restrictions that have caused terrible damage themselves. If we all continue to be very responsible in our personal decisions, we can play our part in the country being able to live with a virus that will never be eradicated, but can be controlled.
These are some of the hardest judgement calls that a Government can be called upon to make, but I hope that this explanation helps to set out the thinking behind the decision making.
As ever, if you have an issue or concern with which I can help you, please do get in touch at [email protected]. You can also find me on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
Jerome Mayhew
Member of Parliament for Broadland
